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On June 19, 2025, markets remain cautious following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause, maintaining rates at 4.25%-4.50% and signaling only two rate cuts by year-end 2025. Escalating Israel-Iran tensions, now in their seventh day with Trump approving potential US strikes, drive safe-haven flows. Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher to $3,370.20, but USD strength (DXY at 98.90) caps gains below $3,400. Silver (XAG/USD) holds steady at $36.75, supported by bullish technicals. EUR/USD softens to 1.1465, awaiting ECB speeches, while GBP/USD hovers at 1.3410 ahead of the BoE’s expected 4.25% rate hold. AUD/USD dips to 0.6470, USD/JPY steadies at 145.10, and USD/CHF climbs to 0.8210 ahead of the SNB’s anticipated 25 bps cut to zero. Weak US data (Retail Sales -0.9% MoM, Industrial Production -0.2%) reinforces economic slowdown concerns, while Trump’s pharma tariff threats and Middle East risks fuel volatility. Posts on X highlight gold’s resilience and USD strength post-FOMC.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,370.20, up slightly from the weekly low of $3,362, but struggles below $3,400 amid USD strength post-Fed’s hawkish pause.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict escalates with IDF strikes near Arak and Khondab, and Trump’s approval of potential US attacks raises war risks, supporting safe-haven gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal economic slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish stance (two cuts by 2025) limits gold’s upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady rates and Powell’s comments on tariff-driven inflation (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 98.90, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s looming pharma tariffs and July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed outlook overshadows dovish expectations (50 bps cuts in 2025), pressuring non-yielding gold.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying near $3,345.
Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).
Support: $3,345 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,308 (50-day SMA).
Forecast: Gold may test $3,345 if USD strength persists. Dovish ECB or BoE could lift to $3,434; Middle East escalation may drive $3,500.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,370.20, with cautious bullishness targeting $3,400. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.75, consolidating after a pullback from a multi-year high of $37.30-$37.35.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions, with potential US involvement, bolster safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) support Fed rate-cut bets, aiding silver.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, supporting silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Technical Factors: Bullish flag breakout and RSI easing from overbought levels validate upside potential.
Trend: Bullish, post-descending trend channel breakout. RSI supports upside but signals caution.
Resistance: $37.00, then $37.30-$37.35 (multi-year high) and $38.00.
Support: $36.55 (50-period SMA, 4H chart), then $36.30 (channel breakpoint) and $36.15.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.55 if USD strengthens. Dovish central bank signals could lift to $37.30; escalation may drive $38.00.
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.75, with bullish bias. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1465, down slightly, pressured by USD strength and Middle East tensions, awaiting ECB speeches.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB, with Lagarde signaling end of rate cuts, supports EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause (DXY at 98.90) limits EUR/USD upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s two-cut projection for 2025 and Powell’s inflation concerns bolster USD.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict and potential US strikes boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs add volatility, pressuring EUR.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1500, then 1.1570 and 1.1600.
Support: 1.1450-1.1445, then 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1435 if USD strength persists. Dovish ECB speeches could push to 1.1430; hawkish ECB may lift to 1.1600.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1465, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: ECB speeches (Lagarde, Nagel, de Guindos), BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3410, subdued ahead of the BoE’s expected rate hold at 4.25%.
BoE Policy: Expected rate hold and dovish outlook (48 bps cuts by year-end) pressure GBP. UK CPI at 3.4% YoY (vs. 2% target) supports caution.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish stance supports DXY at 98.90.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and potential US involvement boost USD safe-haven flows, capping GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and July 9 deadline weigh on GBP sentiment.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860 (LongForecast September target).
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3350 if BoE is dovish. Hawkish BoE could lift to 1.3730; USD strength may push to 1.3300.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3410, with focus on BoE decision. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: BoE decision, ECB speeches, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6470, slightly lower amid risk-off sentiment and USD strength.
Middle East Tensions: Israel-Iran conflict and potential US strikes dampen risk appetite, pressuring AUD. Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia offer limited support.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause limits AUD/USD upside.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD gains.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50, but below 9-day EMA signals weakening momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6450 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6431 if USD strength persists. Dovish central bank signals could lift to 0.6552; ceasefire progress may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6470, with limited upside. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Australian labor data, ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
USD/JPY trades at 145.10, steady near monthly highs, supported by USD strength post-Fed’s hawkish pause.
BoJ Policy: Reduced bets for a 2025 rate hike (delayed to Q1 2026) weaken JPY.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions and potential US strikes revive JPY safe-haven demand, capping USD/JPY.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) soften USD, but Fed’s hawkish outlook (two cuts by 2025) supports DXY at 98.90.
Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks and Trump’s 25% tariffs on Japanese vehicles (July 9 deadline) pressure JPY.
Japanese Economy: Weak Machinery Orders (-9.1% in April) and Reuters Tankan poll signal caution, undermining JPY.
Trend: Bullish, post-145.00 breakout. Positive oscillators suggest upside potential.
Resistance: 145.45 (monthly high), then 146.00 and 146.25-146.30 (May 29 peak).
Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.45 if USD strength persists. Dovish central bank signals could push to 144.00; escalation may drive 143.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 145.10, with bullish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: ECB speeches, BoE decision, SNB rate decision, Middle East developments.
On June 19, 2025, markets digest the Fed’s hawkish pause, with gold ($3,370.20) and silver ($36.75) supported by Middle East tensions but capped by USD strength (DXY at 98.90). EUR/USD (1.1465), GBP/USD (1.3410), and AUD/USD (0.6470) face USD pressure, while USD/JPY (145.10) and USD/CHF (0.8210) gain. USD/CAD (1.3650) softens, and WTI ($76.40) holds firm. SNB’s expected rate cut, ECB speeches, BoE’s decision, and Israel-Iran developments drive volatility, with Trump’s tariffs adding uncertainty.
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