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On June 20, 2025, markets reflect cautious optimism as US President Trump’s two-week delay on Iran strike decisions eases immediate war fears, boosting risk appetite. Gold (XAU/USD) slips to $3,360.10, on track for weekly losses, pressured by a hawkish Fed (two rate cuts projected for 2025) and USD strength (DXY at 98.60). Silver (XAG/USD) falls to $35.80 amid profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand. EUR/USD rises to 1.1520, supported by fading USD safe-haven flows, while GBP/USD holds at 1.3410 post-BoE’s 4.25% rate hold. AUD/USD steadies at 0.6470, NZD/USD at 0.6000, USD/JPY at 145.00, and USD/CHF consolidates at 0.8150 after SNB’s hawkish pause. WTI crude remains at $76.40, supported by Middle East tensions despite de-escalation signals. Canada’s Retail Sales and Eurozone Consumer Confidence data are eyed, alongside Trump’s pharma tariff threats and July 9 tariff deadline. Posts on X highlight USD’s retreat and gold’s dip below $3,377.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,360.10, down from $3,387, pressured by Fed’s hawkish stance and USD strength, despite Middle East tensions.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes for two weeks eases immediate war fears, reducing safe-haven demand, but ongoing Israel-Iran conflict supports gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish outlook overshadows dovish bets.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady 4.25%-4.50% rates, two cuts projected for 2025, and Powell’s inflation concerns (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 108.60, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs and July 19 deadline add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed reduces appeal of non-yielding gold, but dip-buying persists near $3,345.
Trend: Bearish short-term, testing ascending channel support at $3,345-$3,340. Negative oscillators (RSI at 48 on daily) suggest further downside.
Resistance: $3,374-$3,375, then $3,400 and $3,434-$3,435.
Support: $3,345-$3,340 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,323-$3,322 and $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,323 if USD strength persists. Easing Middle East tensions could push to $3,300; renewed escalation may lift to $3,400.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,360.10, with bearish bias below $3,377. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Current Price and Context
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,360.10, down from $3,387, pressured by Fed’s hawkish stance and USD strength, despite Middle East tensions.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes for two weeks eases immediate war fears, reducing safe-haven demand, but ongoing Israel-Iran conflict supports gold.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) signal slowdown, but Fed’s hawkish outlook overshadows dovish bets.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s steady 4.25%-4.50% rates, two cuts projected for 2025, and Powell’s inflation concerns (3% year-end forecast) boost DXY to 108.60, capping gold.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariffs and July 19 deadline add uncertainty, supporting gold as a hedge.
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Fed reduces appeal of non-yielding gold, but dip-buying persists near $3,345.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish short-term, testing ascending channel support at $3,345-$3,340. Negative oscillators (RSI at 48 on daily) suggest further downside.
Resistance: $3,374-$3,375, then $3,400 and $3,434-$3,435.
Support: $3,345-$3,340 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,323-$3,322 and $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,323 if USD strength persists. Easing Middle East tensions could push to $3,300; renewed escalation may lift to $3,400.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,360.10, with bearish bias below $3,377. J.P. Morgan sees $3,675 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD)
Current Price and Context
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $35.80, down from $36.75, driven by profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes and lack of new Israel-Iran conflict developments reduce safe-haven flows, pressuring silver.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) supports Fed rate-cut bets, but hawkish Fed stance limits silver’s upside.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: PBoC’s unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal steady borrowing costs, capping industrial silver demand.
Technical Factors: Bearish momentum grows as RSI drops below 50 on 4H charts.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Bearish short-term, post-pullback from $37.30. Negative oscillators signal further downside.
Resistance: $36.55 (50-period SMA, 4H chart), then $37.00 and $37.30-$37.35 (multi-year high).
Support: $35.50, then $35.00 and $34.50 (50-day SMA).
Forecast: Silver may test $35.00 if risk appetite rises. Renewed Middle East tensions could lift to $36.55; USD strength may push to $34.50.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $35.80, with bearish sentiment. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1520, up from 1.1465, supported by easing USD safe-haven demand and risk-on sentiment.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes boosts risk appetite, supporting EUR.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB stance, with Lagarde signaling no further cuts, bolsters EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause (DXY at 108.60) limits EUR/USD upside.
FOMC Outcome: Fed’s two-cut projection for 2025 and Powell’s inflation concerns support USD.
Trade Policy: Stalled US-EU trade talks and July 19 tariff deadline pressure EUR.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators (RSI at 55) favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (June high).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1570 if risk-on persists. Hawkish Fed rhetoric could push to 1.1435; dovish Eurozone data may drive to 1.1400.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1520, with bullish bias. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Canada Retail Sales, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3410, steady post-BoE’s 4.25% rate hold, with focus on UK data and geopolitics.
BoE Policy: BoE’s rate hold and dovish outlook (48 bps cuts by year-end) cap GBP. UK CPI at 3.4% YoY supports caution.
Geopolitical Risks: Easing US-Iran tensions boost risk appetite, limiting USD safe-haven flows.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, but Fed’s hawkish stance supports DXY at 108.60.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and July 19 deadline weigh on GBP sentiment.
UK Economy: Weak growth outlook pressures GBP, with focus on upcoming data.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators (RSI at 60) suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860.
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3460 if risk-on persists. Soft UK data could push to 1.3350; hawkish BoE signals may lift to 1.3730.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3410, with neutral bias. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6470, steady amid improved risk sentiment and USD retreat.
Geopolitical Risks: Trump’s delay on Iran strikes boosts risk appetite, supporting AUD.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, aiding AUD/USD. Fed’s hawkish pause limits gains.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
PBoC Policy: Unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal steady Chinese demand, neutral for AUD.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI at 50 suggests neutral momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6450 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6495 if risk-on persists. USD strength could push to 0.6431; strong Australian data may lift to 0.6552.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6470, with bullish potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
Current Price and Context
NZD/USD trades at 0.6000, consolidating near 20-day EMA, supported by risk-on sentiment.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: White House’s no-strike signal on Iran boosts risk appetite, supporting NZD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) softens USD, aiding NZD/USD, but Fed’s hawkish pause caps gains.
PBoC Policy: Unchanged LPRs (3.00% one-year, 3.50% five-year) signal stable Chinese demand, neutral for NZD, given NZ’s export reliance on China.
NZ Economy: Weak growth outlook and dovish RBNZ (2.75% cash rate) limit NZD upside.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats add uncertainty, pressuring NZD.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Neutral, oscillating near 20-day EMA at 0.6003. RSI at 50 indicates indecision.
Resistance: 0.6040 (June 19 high), then 0.6100 and 0.6145.
Support: 0.5950, then 0.5846 (May 12 low) and 0.5800.
Forecast: NZD/USD may test 0.6040 if risk-on persists. USD strength could push to 0.5846; strong NZ data may lift to 0.6100.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: X posts show NZD/USD at 0.6000, with neutral bias. LongForecast sees 0.62 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, Middle East developments.
On June 20, 2025, markets embrace risk-on sentiment as Trump’s Iran strike delay eases tensions, pressuring gold ($3,360.10) and silver ($35.80) while lifting EUR/USD (1.1520), AUD/USD (0.6470), and NZD/USD (0.6000). USD/JPY (145.00), USD/CHF (0.8150), and USD/CAD (1.3640) soften, with WTI ($76.40) steady. Fed’s hawkish pause, Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, and Middle East developments drive volatility, with Trump’s tariffs looming.
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