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Global financial markets on May 13, 2025, are focused on the US CPI inflation report and UK employment data, with the US-China trade deal (90-day tariff reduction) continuing to bolster risk sentiment. The US Dollar softens, supporting AUD/USD and GBP/USD gains, while gold recovers slightly ahead of CPI. WTI crude slips, and USD/JPY holds steady as JPY weakens. Geopolitical developments, including Russia-Ukraine peace talks and India-Pakistan tensions, remain in focus.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,255, up from a one-week low.
Market Dynamics: US-China tariff cuts (US: 145% to 30%, China: 125% to 10%) reduce safe-haven demand, capping gold’s upside. A softer USD (DXY at 101.60) aids recovery, but traders await US CPI (expected 2.4% YoY headline, 2.8% core). Geopolitical risks (India-Pakistan, Russia-Ukraine talks) support gold, with Fed’s rate-cut path (September favored) critical.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $3,347; support at $3,200. RSI below 50 suggests consolidation, with CPI as a key driver.
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6400, gaining for the second day.
Key Drivers: US-China trade deal optimism and a weaker USD lift AUD, supported by Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence rebound (+2.2% MoM). RBA’s expected 25 bps rate cut to 3.85% caps gains, with US CPI (0.3% MoM expected) and China’s trade surplus ($96.18 billion) influencing sentiment. US tariff reinstatement risks (Greer’s warning) add caution.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6515; support at 0.6344 (50-day EMA). RSI below 50 indicates bearish bias, with CPI pivotal.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3195, supported by trade deal optimism.
Key Drivers: US-UK trade deal (10% tariffs, reduced on cars/steel) and BoE’s cautious easing (25 bps cut, 1% GDP growth forecast) bolster GBP. UK Unemployment rose to 4.5% (as expected), with Claimant Count at 5.2K. US CPI could lift USD if hotter-than-expected (≥0.4% MoM), pressuring GBP/USD.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3250; support at 1.3150. RSI above 50 signals bullish momentum, with CPI and BoE stance key.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 145.80, holding above 145.55.
Influencing Factors: JPY weakens as US-China trade optimism reduces safe-haven demand. USD softness limits USD/JPY gains, despite Fed’s hawkish pause. BoJ rate-hike bets (2025) and Japan’s mixed data (Household Spending +2.1% YoY, real wages -2.1%) support JPY. US CPI and Russia-Ukraine talks (May 15) are focal points.
Technical View: Resistance at 146.80; support at 145.55. Bullish oscillators favor upside, with 147.00 in view.
Current Level: WTI crude trades at $61.53, down from $61.60.
Key Drivers: US-China tariff cuts ease demand concerns, but OPEC+ output hike fears and USD strength cap gains. Brent crude falls to $64.66. US inventory drawdown (-2.032 million barrels) supports prices, with US CPI influencing USD and oil sentiment. Geopolitical risks (Middle East) provide a floor.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.50. RSI neutral, with CPI and trade deal developments critical.
Today’s Data: US CPI (headline 2.4% YoY, core 2.8% YoY expected) is the main event, with a hot print (≥0.4% MoM) potentially boosting USD by reinforcing Fed hawkishness. UK Unemployment at 4.5% and Claimant Count (5.2K) align with forecasts, supporting GBP stability. Australian Consumer Confidence (+2.2% MoM) aids AUD.
US Inflation Impact: A softer CPI (≤0.2% MoM) could revive July rate-cut bets, weakening USD. Retail Sales and PPI (Thursday) will further shape Fed expectations.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia-Ukraine peace talks (May 15) and Hamas hostage release plans reduce tensions, while India-Pakistan risks persist, supporting safe-haven assets.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-China 90-day tariff truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) and reduced “de minimis” tariffs (120% to 54%) lift risk sentiment, but reinstatement risks (Greer’s comments) add caution. US-UK deal maintains 10% tariffs, supporting GBP.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine talks and Middle East de-escalation (Hamas) ease safe-haven demand, but India-Pakistan tensions sustain gold and JPY support.
Outlook
On May 13, 2025, markets are driven by US-China trade optimism, lifting AUD/USD (0.6400) and GBP/USD (1.3195), while gold ($3,255) recovers cautiously. USD/JPY (145.80) holds firm, and WTI ($61.53) slips. The US CPI report, UK employment data, and geopolitical developments will shape volatility, with Fed policy and trade deal sustainability in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
