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Global financial markets on May 28, 2025, are driven by robust US economic data, ongoing US fiscal concerns, and central bank policy expectations. The US Dollar (DXY at 99.70) reaches a weekly high, bolstered by strong Consumer Confidence (98.0) and Durable Goods Orders (-6.3% vs. -7.9% expected), though Fed rate-cut bets and Trump’s $4T tax bill temper gains. AUD/USD slides to 0.6440 despite steady Australian CPI (2.4% YoY), while GBP/USD dips to 1.3480 but retains a bullish outlook. JPY weakens, pushing USD/JPY above 144.00, influenced by Japan’s bond yield management. Gold falls below $3,300, and WTI crude holds at $61.20. FOMC minutes, US GDP, and PCE data are key catalysts this week.
Current Level: DXY trades near 99.70, up 0.2%, a weekly top.
Market Dynamics: Strong US Consumer Confidence (98.0 vs. 86.0) and Durable Goods Orders (-6.3% vs. -7.9%) bolster USD, easing recession fears. US fiscal concerns (Trump’s $4T tax bill) and Fed rate-cut bets (two 25 bps cuts in 2025) limit gains. FOMC minutes (today), Prelim Q1 GDP (Thursday), and PCE Price Index (Friday) will shape USD direction. US-EU tariff delay (July 9) supports risk sentiment.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 100.00; support at 99.45. RSI near 50 suggests cautious bullishness, with FOMC minutes critica
Current Level: AUD/USD trades near 0.6440, down 0.3%.
Market Dynamics: Australian CPI steady at 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.3% expected) supports AUD, but RBA’s dovish stance (65% chance of July cut) caps gains. USD strength and Japan’s bond yield cuts (10-year US Treasury at 4.46%) pressure AUD. China’s 3% YoY industrial profit growth aids risk sentiment, but Darwin Port tensions add volatility. FOMC minutes and US data are key.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 0.6537; support at 0.6430. RSI above 50 favors bulls, but 9-day EMA break signals caution.
Current Level: GBP/USD trades near 1.3480, down 0.3%.
Key Drivers: USD strength and strong US data (Consumer Confidence at 98.0) weigh on GBP, despite hot UK CPI (3.5% YoY) reducing BoE rate-cut bets (38 bps in 2025). US-EU tariff delay boosts risk tone, capping GBP losses. FOMC minutes and US PCE data will drive USD, with BoE’s June meeting in focus.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 1.3560; support at 1.3391. Bullish RSI near 60 targets 1.3749.
Current Level: USD/JPY trades near 144.10, up 0.7%.
Market Dynamics: Japan’s Finance Minister’s plan to curb JGB yield spikes weakens JPY. BoJ’s hawkish outlook (Ueda’s 2% target) and strong Services PPI (3.1% YoY) limit losses, but USD strength and risk-on mood (US-EU tariff delay) lift USD/JPY. Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza) support safe-haven demand. FOMC minutes and Tokyo CPI (Friday) are pivotal.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at 145.00; support at 143.65. Positive RSI supports upside, with 145.40 as a target.
Current Level: WTI crude trades near $61.20, flat.
Market Dynamics: US-EU tariff delay and Gaza tensions support WTI, but OPEC+ output hike concerns (+411,000 bpd for July) and US-Iran nuclear talk progress cap gains. EIA inventory build (+1.328M barrels) adds bearish pressure. OPEC+ meeting (May 31) and US data (GDP, PCE) will drive direction.
Technical Outlook: Resistance at $62.00; support at $60.00. Neutral RSI near 50 awaits OPEC+ clarity.
Current Level: Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,295, down 0.1%.
Market Dynamics: USD strength and positive risk tone (US-EU tariff delay) pressure gold. US fiscal concerns (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade) and geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Gaza ceasefire doubts) limit losses. Fed rate-cut bets support XAU/USD. FOMC minutes and US PCE data are key, with Chinese gold purchases as a tailwind.
Technical Outlook: Support at $3,245; resistance at $3,340. RSI above 50 suggests limited downside, with $3,400 in view.
Today’s Data: FOMC minutes (today) are critical for Fed rate-cut clarity (74% chance for September). US Prelim Q1 GDP (Thursday), PCE Price Index (Friday), and Tokyo CPI (Friday) will shape USD and JPY. RBNZ’s expected 25 bps cut to 3.25% (today) may impact NZD.
Geopolitical Developments: Russia’s refusal of Ukraine ceasefire talks and Gaza ceasefire rejections boost safe-haven JPY, gold, and silver. US-Iran nuclear talks progress cautiously, affecting WTI.
US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T tax bill, pending Senate vote, raises deficit fears (Moody’s projects 134% debt-to-GDP by 2035). Fed’s cautious stance (stagflation risks) persists.
US-China Trade Deal and Geopolitical Risks
Trade Status: US-EU tariff delay (July 9) and US-China truce (US: 30%, China: 10%) ease tensions, but Huawei chip restrictions strain relations. China’s 3% industrial profit growth supports AUD. Australia-China Darwin Port tensions add volatility.
Geopolitical Tensions: Russia-Ukraine escalation, Gaza conflicts, and US-Iran talk uncertainties drive safe-haven flows.
Outlook
On May 28, 2025, USD strength (DXY at 99.70) pressures AUD/USD (0.6440), GBP/USD (1.3480), and EUR/USD (1.1310), while lifting USD/JPY (144.10). Gold ($3,295) dips, WTI ($61.20) steadies, and silver ($33.15) holds firm. FOMC minutes, US GDP, PCE data, and RBNZ’s rate decision will drive volatility, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks in focus.
Stay tuned for further updates.
