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On June 18, 2025, markets are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Escalating Israel-Iran tensions, now in their sixth day, with Trump demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” boost safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) flatlines below $3,400 at $3,378.94, supported by geopolitical risks and Fed rate-cut bets (80% for September). Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates above $37.00 at $37.15. EUR/USD holds near 1.1500, lifted by ECB hawkishness, while GBP/USD steadies at 1.3400 awaiting UK CPI. AUD/USD rebounds to 0.6480 despite risk-off sentiment, and USD/JPY tests 144.50 amid JPY weakness post-BoJ’s steady 0.5% rate. USD/CAD edges lower to 1.3660. Weak US Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) reaffirm economic softening. Key catalysts include FOMC’s “dot plot,” UK CPI, Australian labor data, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats (pharma sector next) adding volatility. Posts on X show DXY at 98.73, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,378.94, flat below $3,400, as markets await the FOMC decision.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict, with Trump’s call for Iran’s surrender, fuels safe-haven demand.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM vs. -0.7% expected) and Industrial Production (-0.2% vs. 0.1% expected) reinforce 80% Fed rate-cut odds for September, supporting gold.
FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold at 4.25%-4.50%, with focus on Powell’s comments and the “dot plot” for rate-cut signals.
Trade Policy: Trump’s looming pharma tariffs and July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs add uncertainty, bolstering gold.
Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish stance aids non-yielding gold, despite USD strength (DXY at 98.73).
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.
Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).
Support: $3,340-$3,335 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,300.
Forecast: Gold may test $3,340 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish signals could lift to $3,451; escalation may drive $3,500.
Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,378.94, with cautious optimism. LongForecast sees $3,600 by Q4 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $37.15, consolidating above $37.00, near its highest level since February 2012.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions limit silver’s downside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) bolster Fed rate-cut bets (80%), supporting silver.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.
China’s Economy: Retail Sales at 6.4% YoY support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.
Technical Factors: Overbought RSI suggests caution, but bullish flag breakout supports upside.
Trend: Bullish, post-descending trend channel breakout. Slightly overbought RSI warrants caution.
Resistance: $37.50 (February 2012 high), then $38.00 and $38.50-$38.55.
Support: $36.90-$36.85 (channel resistance breakpoint), then $36.40-$36.35 and $36.00.
Forecast: Silver may test $36.85 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to $38.00; escalation may drive $38.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $37.15, with bullish bias. CoinCodex sees $37.79 in 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
EUR/USD trades at 1.1500, up slightly, supported by ECB hawkishness ahead of the FOMC decision.
ECB Policy: Hawkish ECB, with Lagarde signaling end of rate cuts, supports EUR.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, with DXY at 98.73.
FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold, with 80% odds of a September cut, limits USD upside.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s pharma tariff threats add volatility.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.
Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).
Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.
Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1450 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation may push to 1.1435.
Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1500, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, UK CPI, Middle East developments.
GBP/USD trades at 1.3400, steady near a three-year high, awaiting UK CPI and FOMC/BoE decisions.
UK Economic Data: April’s economic contraction boosts BoE rate-cut bets (three 25 bps cuts in 2025), pressuring GBP. UK CPI is critical.
BoE Policy: Dovish expectations for Thursday’s meeting cap GBP upside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) support Fed rate-cut bets (80%), limiting GBP/USD downside.
Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions bolster USD safe-haven flows, capping GBP/USD.
Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit uncertainties weigh on GBP.
Trend: Bullish, near three-year highs. Positive oscillators suggest consolidation.
Resistance: 1.3460, then 1.3730 (August 2025 forecast high) and 1.3860 (LongForecast September target).
Support: 1.3400, then 1.3350 and 1.3300.
Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3350 if UK CPI softens. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.3730; hawkish BoE may drive 1.3860.
Market Sentiment: X posts show GBP/USD at 1.3400, with focus on central bank meetings. LongForecast sees 1.3650 by June’s end.
Catalysts: UK CPI, FOMC decision, BoE decision, Middle East developments.
AUD/USD trades at 0.6480, rebounding despite risk-off sentiment from Middle East tensions.
Middle East Tensions: Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia boost risk sentiment, supporting AUD, but ongoing conflict limits gains.
Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) caps AUD.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, supporting AUD/USD. FOMC decision is key.
Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD, but Trump’s tariffs add uncertainty.
RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) limits AUD upside.
Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50 supports upside, but below 9-day EMA signals weakening momentum.
Resistance: 0.6495 (9-day EMA), then 0.6552 (seven-month high) and 0.6687.
Support: 0.6480 (channel lower boundary), then 0.6431 (50-day EMA).
Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6431 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could lift to 0.6552; ceasefire progress may drive 0.6687.
Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6480, with upside potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, Australian labor data, Middle East developments.
USD/JPY trades at 144.50, testing monthly lows as JPY weakens post-BoJ’s steady 0.5% rate.
BoJ Policy: BoJ’s cautious stance, delaying rate hikes to Q1 2026, undermines JPY.
Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran tensions bolster JPY safe-haven demand, limiting USD/JPY upside.
US Economic Data: Weak Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Industrial Production (-0.2%) pressure USD, with FOMC decision critical.
Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks at G7 Summit and Trump’s tariffs (July 9 deadline) weaken JPY.
Japanese Economy: Weak Machinery Orders (-9.1% in April) and Reuters Tankan poll signal caution, pressuring JPY.
Trend: Bullish, post-145.00 breakout. Positive oscillators suggest upside potential.
Resistance: 145.45 (monthly high), then 146.00 and 146.25-146.30 (May 29 peak).
Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.
Forecast: USD/JPY may test 145.45 if FOMC is hawkish. Dovish FOMC could push to 144.00; escalation may drive 143.50.
Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.50, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.
Catalysts: FOMC decision, Middle East developments.
On June 18, 2025, markets are on edge awaiting the FOMC decision, with gold ($3,378.94) and silver ($37.15) steady, and WTI crude ($76.40) surging on Israel-Iran tensions. EUR/USD (1.1500), GBP/USD (1.3400), and AUD/USD (0.6480) hold firm, while USD/JPY (144.50) and USD/CAD (1.3660) soften. Weak US Retail Sales (-0.9% MoM) and Trump’s tariff threats (pharma sector next) fuel volatility, with FOMC’s “dot plot,” UK CPI, and Middle East developments critical.
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